Highlights
After returning to the level of November 2020 last week, around 1.1765, EURUSD opens the week without adefined direction, with investors betting on a strong global economic recovery, even in the face of the slow pace invaccination campaigns and the growing number of infections that still threatens the hospital system in most parts of the world.The asset faces significant resistance at 1.1800 and a next key support level at 1.1720.
There will be no release of relevant data from the US and Europe today, so it is more likely that the EURUSD will keep up with theevents in the bond market. However, on Friday the US PAYROLL numbers will be released whoseimpacts are beginning to be seen now. On the European market, this week the market is also awaiting data frommarket confidence (released on Tuesday) and preliminary inflation figures (released on Wednesday).
Due to Easter, Thursday and Friday are holidays in part of the markets.
In today’s session, the EURUSD, which opened at 1.1788, fell to the level of 1.1762 and fluctuates around 1.1780, just belowexponential moving averages for both 25 days and 15 days and below the neck of the double top pattern
DXY is being traded at 92.8 thousand points. The USDJPY is hovering close to 109.7. The USDCHF of $ 0.9397. THEgold is trading at $ 1,723 an ounce, and silver at $ 24.8
The main facts observed by investors at the moment are:
COVID-19
China is partnering with the United Arab Emirates to produce up to 200 million doses annuallySinopharm vaccine, in an agreement that takes the vaccine manufacturing abroad for the first time and deepensBeijing’s influence in the Middle East.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed irritation with the leaders of the 16 German states, who haveauthority to implement health and safety rules locally and are thus breaking commitmentsfederally signed to contain the pandemic. While Merkel advocates restrictions on the displacement ofpeople and goods, the leaders released circulation for the Easter holiday next week. The country has alreadylost more than 75 thousand people to COVID-19 and is still far from controlling the epidemic, since the average ofseven days of new infections is at its highest level since January 2021.
MACROECONOMY
One of the largest container ships in the world has been blocking the Suez Canal since last Tuesday,interrupting the main sea route between east and west (about 15% of world maritime traffictransit through the channel, representing more than 30% of the goods), causing millionaire losses to severalsectors. At least 369 vessels were waiting to transit the channel, including dozens of carrier shipscontainers, bulk carriers and oil tankers. The Maersk logistics group estimates that it could take weeks or even monthsto normalize global maritime transport.
FISCAL POLICY
President Joe Biden will release details of his $ 3 trillion proposal this weekfederal infrastructure investments. In April, more investment is expected, this time for the health sectorsand education.
ACTIONS
European stock market indexes are remaining valued, even though the banking sector is pulling themdown after the warning that a United States hedge fund has stopped paying margin calls (to theAs the risk of a transaction increases, the broker may request more resources or close the position).The family office Archegos Capital Management used brokerage services from large banks, mainly the SwissCredit Suisse and the Japanese Nomura, but also Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS. Last week,these banks requested margin calls from Archegos, which did not honor them, causing significant losses tothe results of these Institutions, estimated between US $ 3 billion and US $ 4 billion for Credit Suisse, which reported US$ 2.9 billion net profit for the entire year 2020. Archegos was behind the massive stock sales thatimpacted Wall Street last Friday (ViacomCBS and Discovery dropped more than 30%). The fund, which had largeexposures to ViacomCBS and various Chinese technology stocks, was hit hard after the group’s sharesUS media started to drop on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week.
OTHERS
Visa Inc. announced today that it will allow the use of USD Coin, a stable cryptocurrency whose value is peggeddirectly to the US dollar, to settle transactions in your payment network, the latest sign of growingacceptance of digital currencies by the financial sector. Visa launched the pilot program with the payment platform andCrypto.com encryption and plans to offer the option to more partners later this year. BNY Mellon, BlackRock and Mastercardhave already adopted some digital currencies, demonstrating that cryptocurrencies will become a regular part of walletsinvestment.
