Juliana Calil
04-16-2021
Highlights
In the face of good news about the US retail sector and the US labor market, EURUSD hit $ 1.1992 on Thursday.fair, its highest level since March 11th. The resumption of the North American economy increased the market’s risk appetite,favoring the euro. Dow Jones and the S&P 500 closed the session at record highs. The yield on US Treasury billsmaturing in 10 years, it dropped further to around 1.55% today. However, the facts show that the Zone’s economyof the Euro remains under the effect of the pandemic, making this “optimism” extremely volatile
DXY is being traded at the level of 91.7 thousand points. The USDJPY is oscillating close to $ 108.7. The USDCHF of $ 0.9223.Gold is trading at $ 1,763 an ounce, and silver at $ 25.8 an ounce.
The main facts observed by investors at the moment are:
COVID-19
Among the more than 75 million people who have been immunized in the USA, 5,800 have been diagnosed withCOVID-19. Of these, more than 40% were 60 years old or older, 30% of the cases were asymptomatic, almost 60% werewomen, 7% were hospitalized and 1% died. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reinforced therecommendation that people who have been fully vaccinated should continue to take precautions inpublic places, such as wearing a mask, staying at least 2 meters away from others, avoiding crowdsand poorly ventilated spaces and wash your hands frequently.
France on Thursday became the last country to register more than 100,000 deaths due to Covid-19. The countrynow has the eighth highest total number of coronavirus deaths in the world. President Emmanuel Macronrefused to block the country, despite requests from the medical community and the advisory committee itselfgovernment scientific research.
The Oxford University Study points out that the risk of blood clots among those who have beendiagnosed with COVID-19 is greater than among those who received vaccines against the disease. The studysuggests that the risk of a clot among people with the disease is about 8 to 10 times higher than among people with the diseasethat have been vaccinated.
To date, 1 billion doses of vaccine against COVID-19 have been produced worldwide. In just over 1 month, theworld is expected to produce another billion, according to a forecast by Airfinity Ltd., a research firm headquartered inIn London. The company also estimated that the European Union should have 75% of its population vaccinated byDecember 2021.
MONETARY POLICY
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos told the Monetary Affairs Committee of theEuropean Parliament yesterday that the Institution will act in the face of any “damaging” increase in the costs ofloans until the pandemic ends. Guindos also said that economic activity in general should acceleratestrongly in the second half of 2021, thanks to vaccinations, the easing of containment measures and supportfiscal and monetary issues around the world. At the same time, uncertainty remains high and recovery is expected to befragile, with GDP only reaching the pre-crisis level in the second quarter of 2022.✓ MACROECONOMY:o Eurozone: consumer prices in Germany and France rose more in March in more than oneyear, while Italy’s inflation rate reached its highest level since May 2019. The mainGerman research institutes have reduced their growth forecast for the country’s economy in2021 to 3.7%, from 4.7%.
The USA: Industrial production in the United States in March DE 2021 increased 1.4% compared to the monthprevious 2020, frustrating the market that estimated a growth of 2.8%. The productionmanufacturing and mining advanced 2.7% and 5.7%, respectively, while in theutilities production fell 11.4%, with demand for heating falling since February wasexceptionally cold and exceptionally hot March. In 1Q21, industrial production grew 2.5%compared to the same period in the previous year.
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment insurance in the week ended inApril 10 fell 193 thousand compared to the previous week, to 576 thousand, the lowest level since March2020 and well below the market expectations of 700 thousand. On the other hand, the report alsoshowed that 16.9 million people continued to receive unemployment insurance in the week of 27March, showing that millions of people remain out of the labor market.
Retail sales in the USA in March 2021 jumped 9.8% over the previous month, exceedingmarket forecasts of a 5.9% gain. The main increases occurred in articlessports (23.5%), clothing (18.3%), motor vehicles (15.1%), food and beverage services(13.4%), building materials (12.1%), gas stations (10.9%), electronics and household appliances(10.5%).
China: GDP figures for the first quarter will be released tomorrow, data on retail sales ofMarch, industrial production and urban investment. Investors expect a strong recoverydue to the weak base. Meanwhile, China’s central bank injected another CNY 10 billion into thebanking system today, while keeping rates on medium-term loans unchanged at 2.95%.
ACTIONS
PepsiCo, UnitedHealth, Citigroup and Bank of America 1Q21 results exceeded forecasts. OBlackRock’s result came slightly below expectations. The pan-European Stoxx 600 reached a record high,exceeding the levels seen before the pandemic.
Source: WinTrade Markets https://wintrademarkets.com/
