Juliana Calil
04/26/2021
Highlights
The last week of April begins with the EURUSD appreciating strongly, breaking the 1.2100 barrier, demonstrating themarket optimism regarding the global economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. This week, they will be releasedimportant data on the economy in the first quarter, both in Europe and the USA, and the monetary policy committeeof the EDF, the FOMC, meets. The President of the USA must formalize his financing proposal for the “ American Families Plan ”,which is expected to include a wave of new spending on children and education by raising taxes on Wednesday.
In addition, the first quarter results of major technology companies such as Tesla will be released this week.According to CNBC, 25% of companies in the S&P 500 have already released their first quarter results, with 84%reported a positive surprise in earnings per share and 77% exceeded revenue estimates.
Some remain optimistic (say that 2021 could achieve the greatest economic growth in almost four decades) but othersmay feel that the FED is going to lessen the stimulus ahead of schedule, which would shift the capital from EUR to USD, devaluingthe pair. The dollar has fallen nearly 3% so far in April.
DXY is being traded at the level of 90,800 points. The USDJPY is oscillating close to $ 108.1. The USDCHF of $ 0.9143.Gold is trading at $ 1,780 an ounce, and silver at $ 26.1
Throughout this week, the main facts to be disclosed are:
Tuesday, 27/4
•Weekly retail sales in the USA (redbook) from April 24, 2021
•February / 2021 US house price index
•$ X billion US Treasury bond auction maturing in 7 years
•$ X billion 2-year US Treasury auction
•Biden introduces himself
Wednesday 28/4
•GfK consumer confidence for Germany in May / 2021
•Weekly mortgage applications in the U.S., April 23, 2021
•EDF monetary policy decision and press conference
Thursday, 4/29
•US 1Q21 GDP•Labor market in the USA, April 24, 2021
European consumer confidence in April / 2021
Friday, 30/4
•European Union 1Q21 GDP
•European Union April inflation•Americans’ personal income and expenses in March / 2021
•PCE price index for the US in March / 202
The main facts observed by investors at the moment are:
COVID-19
France plans to reopen outdoor restaurants in mid-May.
Much of Italy’s economy started to reopen, including restaurants and bars, still with a touch ofcollect from 22h.
Spain would be ready to open its doors to large-scale tourism this summer. The Spanish governmentsaid he hopes to send the draft of his national recovery plan to the European Commission this week,before Friday’s official deadline.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the NYT that European destinations would beopen to vaccinated Americans.
The US will start sharing AstraZeneca vaccines with other countries as soon as it is authorized by theFood and Drug Administration. At least 60 million doses must be made available, especially for theIndia, which is experiencing the largest worldwide increase in COVID-19 cases at this time.
MONETARY POLICY
Last week, an auction of USD $ 60 billion in US Treasury bonds withmaturity in 2 years and another USD $ 61 billion maturing in 5 years went well, with sufficient demand,easing fears that the financial market would find it difficult to absorb such a supply. This scenario favorsdovish posture of the Fed, opening space for the continuity of the fiscal and monetary stimulus plans, which are givingdue support for the US economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic.
MACROECONOMY
Incoming orders for durable goods manufactured in the USA increased by 0.5% in March 2021 compared toto the previous month, below the market forecasts of a 2.5% increase, with the scarcity of supplyimpacting production again, due to winter storms in Texas and other southern states,which restricted production and delayed shipments.
The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany rose in April 2021, as companiesimproved their assessments of the current business situation once again. On the other hand, companiesless optimistic about the next six months, due to the impact of the latest wave of restrictions onmovement of people and goods in the country. Sentiment improved among manufacturers and traders, butworsened among service providers and builders.
SHARES
European stock markets traded higher in today’s session, despite the Financial Times having published information onthat Volkswagen warned its executives about a drop in production, due to the global shortage ofsemiconductors. Renault appreciated 1.6% today after announcing that it will achieve carbon neutrality in Europeuntil 2040, and in its global operations until 2050.
OTHERS
Last week, Bitcoin plunged 17% to less than $ 50,000 after it was reported thatPresident Biden is considering raising the capital gains tax. Earlier this month, JPMorgannoted that Bitcoin’s bullish trend could be at risk. Today, Bitcoin has risen more than 7%, asinvestors took advantage of lower prices.
Source:https://wintrademarkets.com/
