Juliana Calil
05/03/2021
Highlights
First working day of May 2021 with a holiday in Japan, China and the United Kingdom, limiting the volumes in circulation in thefinancial markets around the world. After hitting 1.2150 last week, driven by market optimism inRegarding the global economic recovery, EURUSD started the month stable. May begins more cautiously, waiting for manyeconomic data from the European Union and the USA that will be released this week, as shown in the table below, and that will show thehow efficient are the monetary and fiscal policies adopted by the governments of the major global economies inresponse to the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In April, the EUR rose 2.5% against the USD. EURUSD started the month close to 1.1740 and ended on 1.2017, after hitting1.2150. The pair followed the strong valuations of the North American and European stock exchanges, whose companies presentedquite satisfactory results in its operations in the first quarter of 2021.
DXY is being traded at the level of 90.9 thousand points. The USDJPY is oscillating close to $ 109.1. The USDCHF of $ 0.9111.Gold is trading at $ 1,792 an ounce, and silver at $ 26.9.T
hroughout this week, the main facts to be disclosed are:
Monday, 03/5
•Markit Manufacturing PMI of major European and US economies in April / 2021
•German retail data in March / 2021
•Speech by senior FED members (Williams and Powell)
Wednesday, 05/5
•IHS Markit Services PMI and IHS Markit Composite PMI from major European economies andof the USA in April / 2021
•European Union PPI (Producer Price Index) in March / 2021
•Weekly mortgage applications in the US, April 30, 2021
•Speech by senior EDF members (Evans, Rosegreen, Mester)
•Speech by senior ECB members (Lane)
Thursday, 06/5
•Data on the civil construction sector of the main European and US economies in terms ofapril / 2021
•Weekly retail sales in the European Union in March / 2021
•Speech by senior ECB members (Guindos, Schnabel)
•Labor market in the USA, from 1 / May / 2021
•Speech by senior EDF members (Williams, Bostic, Mester, Kaplan)
Friday, 07/5
•Balance of Trade and Industrial Production of the main European economies inMarch / 2021
•Speech by senior members of the EDF (Lagarde)
•Payroll
The main facts observed by investors at the moment are:
COVID-19
The European Commission plans to reduce non-essential travel restrictions for fully vaccinated visitorsoutside the EU and those coming from countries with a good epidemiological background.
France entered the first phase of the reopening plan, which now allows travel across the country and the returnstudents’ partial access to schools.
Spain intends to reopen its borders to foreign tourists as of June, respecting the scheme.
MONETARY POLICY
Comments by Luis de Guindos, vice president of the European Central Bank, today, helped tovaluing the EUR against the USD. He told an Italian newspaper that the ECB can begin to eliminateemergency stimulus when the pace of vaccinations against COVID-19 reaches the required level and the economyspeed up.
MACROECONOMY
German retail sales increased by 7.7% in March, the highest increase since May 2020, exceeding themarket expectations.
April 2021 IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI presented the strongest expansion in the industrymanufacturing since the beginning of data collection in June 1997, supported especially by the growthindustry in Italy, as well as Germany, France and Spain. The index remained above the 50.0 markfor the tenth consecutive month. Industrial production, order entry, order backlog andemployment, while average input delivery times have decreased. In relation to prices, inflationinput costs was the second highest on record. Looking to the future, manufacturers presented thegreater optimism in almost nine years.
The April 2021 IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI indicated a robust improvement in the health of the sectormanufacturing sector, the most pronounced since the beginning of data collection in May 2007, despiteshows a worse result than in March 2021. The overall growth was supported by more expansionsproduction and new orders, with the latter growing at the most accentuated pace since April2010. The core index was also driven upward by delays in delivery from suppliers withoutprecedent (usually a sign of improvement in operating conditions). The shortage of raw materialsalso led to the fastest increase in cost burdens since July 2008, with companies looking topass on increases in supplier prices through sharp increases in production. Meanwhile, business confidence has moderated amid concerns about disruptionsin the supply chain and tensions in future production capacity.
Civil construction spending in the US in March 2021 increased by 0.2% over the previous month, belowmarket expectations of a 1.9% gain. While spending on family homes has grown1.7% in this comparison, spending on public infrastructure fell 1.5% mainly due to highways andstreets (-2.2%) and education (-2%)
TOCKS
US stock indexes hit new record highs on Monday. Important to highlightthat Nasdaq underperformed Dow and S&P 500, as investors are swapping positions intechnology companies through actions linked to value, especially those from sectors that were strongly impactedby the pandemic. The economic recovery that is taking place should trigger a sharp increase in spendingleading 2021 to have the most robust economic growth in nearly four decades. European indices tooreached record highs today, such as the French CAC 40, which reached its highest level since November 2000
Source: https://wintrademarkets.com
