Juliana Calil
05/10/2021
Highlights
The second week of the month of May begins under the influence of the April Payroll disclosure, last Friday, leadinginvestors to undo their growing long positions in the USD. The USA created just over 25% of the jobs thateconomists had predicted in April / 2021 and the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly, casting doubt on how long theThe Fed will need to keep the country’s monetary policy loose.
Longer-term Treasury yields rose slightly on Monday, with the market awaiting dataon US inflation in April / 2021, which will be released next Wednesday, among several other economic data frommajor global economies to be published this week. The interest rate on 10-year bonds wasat 1.6038% this afternoon.
Tomorrow’s session is expected to have positive data from the economy of Germany and the European Union, measured through theZEW economic confidence indicator, and no relevant data on the North American economy. Another day ofEURUSD appreciation, but with low volume, as the big movements should be seen on Wednesday,by disclosing US inflation in April / 2021. However, the risk of a corrective bearish decline in the short term isincreasing.
Analysts forecast inflation in the range of 3.4% in April 2021, the highest figure since September 2013. Prices are highrental prices and expected household spending. In the next 3 years, an average inflation rate of 3.1% is expectedyear.
DXY is being traded with stability, at the level of 90.2 thousand points. The USDJPY is oscillating close to $ 108.7. OUSDCHF of $ 0.9006. Gold is trading at $ 1,837 an ounce, and silver at $ 27.3 an ounce.
Monday, 10/5
Expectations of US consumer inflation in April / 2021
US President Joe Biden’s speech on the economic situatio
Tuesday 11/5
ZEW Monthly Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Eurozone in May / 2021
Weekly retail sales in the USA (redbook) from May 8, 2021
Speeches by top EDF members (Williams, Brainard, Daly, Bostic, Harker)
Wednesday, 12/5
Several economic data from the United Kingdom, such as Trade Balance and GDP, inMarch / 2021
Eurozone Industrial Production in March / 2021
ECB non-monetary policy meeting
Weekly mortgage applications in the US, May 7, 202
US inflation in April / 2021
10-year US Treasury bond auction
Speeches by top EDF members (Clarida, Bostic, Harker)
Thursday, 5/13
Labor market in the USA, from 8 / May / 2021
PPI index of product prices in the USA in April / 2021
Speeches by top EDF members (Waller, Bullard)
Friday, 14/5
Disclosure of the minutes of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting that took place on 22 / April / 2021
US retail sales in April / 2021
Industrial production in the USA in April / 2021
The main facts observed by investors at the moment are:
COVID-19
On average, in the last week, almost three million doses of the vaccine against COVID-19 were beingadministered per day in the Eurozone, at a similar pace to that observed in the USA
MACROECONOMY
In a presentation made this afternoon, US President Joe Biden asked companies to increase theirAmerican workers’ wages, and also asked the population that “when they are offered aAdequate employment must accept it or it will lose the benefits offered by the government to the unemployed ”.Biden also outlined the measures his government is taking to encourage hiring after thedisappointing job creation in April. Among these measures, Biden said that his government will distributemore economic stimulus, already included in the $ 1.9 trillion aid plan. Biden also reinforced theneed to approve its infrastructure and education investment plan, which should establishthe basis for more and more people to return to the labor market.
ACTIONS
Stock markets in Asia-Pacific closed higher on Monday, ignoring job reportsIn the USA.
In commodity markets, oil futures fell to the red on Monday, havingpreviously jumped to its highest level in almost three years after one of the largest oil pipelines in theUSA remained closed after a cyber security attack.
European equities closed mixed on Monday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high on Monday, driving strong gains betweenenergy stocks, taking advantage of last week’s momentum. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have reached newspikes on Friday
According to a CNBC report, the dividends will keep the shares appreciating in 2021. In April of2020, 24 companies listed on the S&P 500 have reduced or suspended their dividends. In April 2021,the opposite happened: 33 S&P 500 companies announced increases, and none announced a reduction orsuspension of dividends. 10 of the companies that suspended dividends in 2020 have resumed their payments in 2021. A year ago, companies had no idea where they were going.Now there is much greater clarity. Analysts indicate a 5% growth in the amount paid via dividendsin 2021, compared to 2020. That means more than USD $ 30 billion more in the pocket of investors inone year to the next
Source: https://wintrademarkets.com
