Juliana Calil
06/08/2021
Highlights
With an even weaker session than yesterday, hitting 50% of the ATR, the EURUSD is likely to show a smalldown 0.14% variation, closing close to 1.2175, close to the VWAP and the POC. The day’s range was very tight,as shown in the table below, but offered good opportunities for scalpers . The dollar’s widespread weakness and hopes for astrong economic recovery in Europe continued to provide support for sentiment in general. In the absence of newinformation, investors should maintain this cautious mood until tomorrow.
The yield on the ten-year US Treasury bond, which monitors the flow of capital to the dollar, has arrivedat 1.5297% this afternoon, the lowest level reached in the last two months. Dow Jones and S&P 500 should close practicallystable, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. All this stability is a reflection of investors waiting for the dataUS inflation (CPI, which is expected to jump to 4.7%, the highest rate since September 2008) and the next policy meetingEuropean Central Bank monetary policy. Both take place this next Thursday. The Deutsche Exchange Rate Volatility IndexBank (DBVIX) today reached its lowest level since February last year.
This week the US Treasury will auction $58 billion in bonds maturing in three years (an auction that took place inToday’s afternoon), $38 billion in bonds maturing in ten years (tomorrow at 2pm) and $24 billion in bonds maturingin thirty years (Thursday at 2pm)
The DXY is trading at 90.1, up slightly by 0.18%. The USDJPY is fluctuating near $109.5. The USDCHF of $0.8968.Gold is trading at $1,893 an ounce, and silver at $27.6.
The main facts observed by investors at the moment are:
COVID-19
The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine will begin testing in children under 12, in a study that involvesapproximately 4,500 attendees in over 90 countries such as the US, Finland, Poland and Spain
The Mastercard Foundation will provide $1.3 billion to support the immunization program in Africa. Ofunding under the Saving Lives and Livelihoods initiative will be implemented in partnership with the CentersAfricans for Disease Control and Prevention and will provide vaccines for more than 50 million people. THEfoundation will also support the African Union’s effort to manufacture locally. More than 80% of financingfrom the Mastercard Foundation will go towards purchasing Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
More than a fifth of Chicago’s Magnificent Mile commercial real estate is empty after the pandemic.This emblematic situation demonstrates the path to be followed in the US economic recoveryafter the pandemic
Studies indicate that the DELTA variant of COVID-19, identified in India, is the most infectious that has emerged untilnow. Doctors now want to know if it is also more serious and how effective vaccines are against it.Hearing impairment, severe gastric disorders and blood clots that lead to gangrene, symptoms notcommonly seen in patients with COVID-19, have been associated with the delta variant. In England and Scotland,early evidence suggests that the strain – which is now also dominant there – carries a higher risk ofhospitalization. Delta, also known as B.1.617.2, has spread to more than 60 countries in the last sixmonths and created several travel restrictions
TAX POLICY
President Joe Biden will once again discuss the possibilities of an agreement on the tax package.infrastructure investment with Republican leaders this week after rejecting the latest project offerof the Republican Party’s bill for a $928 billion spending package on Friday. The proposal of spending moreBiden’s recent sales hit $1.7 trillion. Democrats must submit a bill for a House vote, with orwithout Republican support.
MACROECONOMICS
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May 2021 came in at 99.6, slightly below the previous month andwell below pre-pandemic levels. The index, published by the National Federation of Independent Business,assesses the health of small businesses in America, which represent about 50% of the industry’s workforceprivate country. The May reading featured the first drop in morale this year as homeownerssmall businesses are concerned about labor shortages and rising inflationary pressures. Onerecord 48% of small companies surveyed were unable to fill open vacancies, even withmany of them offering higher wages; while higher inflation was making it harder for themif you plan ahead
The World Bank’s Global Economic Perspectives report showed that the world economy mustgrow 5.6% this year, compared to a 4.1% expansion projected in January. Upward revision to 2021 reflectedAdditional fiscal support in some major economies, in particular the $1.9 trillion stimulus package fromJoe Biden. However, the bank warned that the recovery must be halted by “highly unequal” accessthe vaccines. US GDP is expected to grow 6.8% in 2021, while the eurozone is expected to grow 4.2%. The Chinait will probably grow 8.5%, Japan 2.9% and India 8.3%. The WB also increased its forecast ofglobal growth for 2022 by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%
ACTIONS
Several US Senate Republican leaders yesterday rejected the Treasury secretary’s recent deal,Janet Yellen, with the G7 to levy a global minimum corporate tax, casting a shadow over thepossibility of reaching a broader agreement with more countries
Source:https://wintrademarkets.com/
