Highlights
Maintaining the devaluation trajectory, EURUSD opened the session today at 1.1768 and walked towards support, reaching1.1729. Some external factors, in addition to the expectation of a strong global economic recovery, are increasing the demand fordollar: the end of the fiscal year in Japan on 3/31, for the closing of the balance sheets; the need for safe heaven in the face of defaultcaused by the operations of Archegos Capital; and the increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds, on the evethe government announces large investments that will be financed through these bonds (it is 1.76% at the moment).
On Friday, the US PAYROLL figures will be released whose impacts are beginning to be felt. Experts estimatethat in March 2021 the country’s unemployment rate will remain at 6% (it was 6.3% at the end of February), through the creation of 580 thousandvacancies throughout the month. This expectation of positive news on Payroll usually causes investors to anticipate theirbets to place them on Friday. However, Friday is a public holiday (Easter) and the stock exchanges will be closed, increasingplus uncertainty about the direction of EURUSD in the coming days.
DXY is being traded at 93.3 thousand points, its highest level in the last four months and surpassing the barrierof the 93 thousand points. The USDJPY is oscillating close to $ 110.4. The USDCHF of $ 0.9420. Gold is being traded atUS $ 1,682 an ounce, and silver at US $ 24.1.
The main facts observed by investors at the moment are:
COVID-19
Only now has Spain established that all citizens over the age of 6 must wear masks both in locationsclosed as well as open, even when the rules of social distance are followed. The measure includes forcingbathers to wear a mask while sunbathing, a measure that can impact the tourism industry in theparents. People with breathing difficulties or playing individual outdoor sports will be exempt.
In England, about 54.7% of people already have antibodies to the coronavirus in the week endedon March 14th.
The Pfizer / Biontech partnership gave two good news yesterday: it raised its production target to up to 2.5 billionvaccine doses in 2021 (which represents a 25% increase) and the launch of a version of the vaccine that canbe stored in ordinary refrigerators.
Israel, the country with the best vaccination program against COVID-19 in the world, is already starting to programthe immunization of young people aged 12 to 16 years. The country already has enough doses to finish vaccinating all of itspopulation over 16 years.on April 15, the USA will host a virtual event to raise funds for the COVAX program, which aims todistribute vaccines, diagnostics and treatments for COVID -19 in low- and middle-income countries.
Following the example of several other companies in the US, Apple is encouraging its employees to takevaccine against COVID -19 offering paid time off for consultations and paid sick leave forthose who have side effects. In California, where Apple has its head office and more than 50 stores,persons over 16 years of age will be eligible for vaccination from April 15.
MACROECONOMY
Eurozone: The consumer confidence indicator in March 2021 was -10.8, the highest level sincethe beginning of the pandemic, as family expectations have improved so much in relation to the economic situationcountry’s general situation, as to his personal situation, as measured by his future financial situation and hismake important purchases.
Eurozone: The service sector confidence indicator in March 2021 rose 7.7 points in relation to theprevious month to -9.3, its highest level since April last year and above market expectations.
Eurozone: The industry’s confidence indicator in March 2021 increased for the fourth consecutive month,to 2, the highest level since December 2018 and above market expectations. There have been developmentsvery positive in terms of production expectations, assessments of the current level of order books and theadequacy of inventories of finished products.
Germany: March 2021 consumer price index is expected to increase to 1.7% year on yearprevious year, the highest increase since February 2020 and in line with market expectations. Prices of goodsare expected to advance at a faster pace (1.9%), driven by a jump in the cost of energy (4.8%) and agreater increase in food prices (1.6%). In addition, service inflation is likely to accelerate from1.4% to 1.6%, increasing signs of a gradual recovery in domestic demand.
Spain: The industry’s confidence indicator in March 2021 was -3.7, compared to -6.4 in the previous month. There wasan improvement in the level of new orders (-9.5) and in production expectations (-1.4). The stock of productsfinished products decreased (0.2).
FISCAL POLICY
The Build Back Better package , for investments in the USA, will be divided into two legislative proposalsseparate. The first part will be presented in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, will deal with infrastructure. At the end of April,the second part will talk about health and education, in particular to support the large number of women who leftthe labor market during the pandemic to care for children. Biden should come up with some ways tofinance the package but will be open to hearing proposals from Republicans and Democrats on this issue. Although nottalk openly about tax hikes, the Biden government has already signaled it should surcharge corporations by 21%to 28%, the ultra-rich from 13% to 21%, and eliminate subsidies for fossil fuel companies. Investorsmust be prepared for weeks of threatened tax increases, but rates are unlikely to risedrastically. In 10 years, the package should cost the public coffers $ 3 trillion.
ACTIONS
Among European companies, car manufacturers and companies in the travel and hospitality sectorwere among the best performers, with investors focusing on the prospect of a strong recoverydespite the uncertainty surrounding the increase in infection rates and the slow release of vaccines. Actions ofbanks have recovered from the prospect that the confusion caused by Archegos Capital has ended.
